Historical Analysis
Federal Spending Over Time
Published: February 2025
Nine years of contract and budget data reveal a government that keeps growing — with COVID as the accelerant and no sign of slowing down.
Contract Spending Growth
+62%
FY2017 → FY2025
FY2020 COVID Spike
+14%
Year-over-year jump in contracts
USAID Peak Budget
$50.1B
FY2023 — up from $25.8B
Total Contract Spending: FY2017–FY2025
Federal contract spending has grown from $415.4B to $670.9B — a 62% increase in nine years.
Key Trends
Contract spending surged 14% in a single year as the government scrambled to respond to the pandemic. HHS and VA saw the biggest jumps. Much of this emergency spending bypassed normal competitive bidding.
USAID's budget nearly doubled from $25.8B (FY2017) to $50.1B (FY2023). That kind of growth — with minimal public scrutiny — is exactly what DOGE was created to address.
Even after the COVID emergency ended, contract spending didn't return to pre-pandemic levels. FY2025 hit a new high of $670.9B. The ratchet effect in action — emergency spending becomes the new baseline.
Agency Budget Trajectories
Budget authority for major agencies over time. DOD and HHS dwarf everything else — but watch the growth rates.
Note: FY2026 excluded (partial year data). Budget authority shown.